{
  "meta": {
    "report_id": "gc-2026-08-04-synthetic",
    "as_of": "2026-08-04T11:00:00-05:00",
    "timezone": "America/Chicago",
    "coverage": {
      "venues": [
        "kalshi",
        "opinion",
        "polymarket"
      ],
      "x": "available",
      "reddit": "disabled",
      "news": "available",
      "history": "available"
    },
    "data_gaps": [
      "Synthetic sample only; not current market data."
    ],
    "cost_mode": "deterministic"
  },
  "report": {
    "title": "GamblerCat Daily — 2026-08-04",
    "dek": "What moved, where venues disagree, and what the crowd is yelling about.",
    "board": [
      {
        "market_id": "pm-event-a",
        "question": "Will Event A occur by December 31, 2026?",
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "probability": 0.62,
        "delta_24h": 0.08,
        "volume_24h": 182345,
        "spread_bps": 45,
        "depth_usd": 12000,
        "liquidity_summary": "usable",
        "tape_read": "The line drifted higher with usable liquidity. Not every twitch deserves a prophecy.",
        "uncertainty": "Price movement is not proof of the underlying outcome.",
        "link": "https://polymarket.com/event/example-event-a",
        "provenance_ids": [
          "prov-pm-a"
        ]
      },
      {
        "market_id": "pm-event-b",
        "question": "Will Candidate B win the August contest?",
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "probability": 0.31,
        "delta_24h": -0.13,
        "volume_24h": 85450,
        "spread_bps": 125,
        "depth_usd": 7500,
        "liquidity_summary": "usable",
        "tape_read": "The line moved sharply lower with usable liquidity. The repricing is real; the explanation still needs evidence.",
        "uncertainty": "Price movement is not proof of the underlying outcome.",
        "link": "https://polymarket.com/event/example-event-b",
        "provenance_ids": [
          "prov-pm-b"
        ]
      },
      {
        "market_id": "pm-event-d",
        "question": "Will Team D win its next match?",
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "probability": 0.71,
        "delta_24h": 0.03,
        "volume_24h": 245000,
        "spread_bps": 35,
        "depth_usd": 28000,
        "liquidity_summary": "deep and tight",
        "tape_read": "The line drifted higher with deep and tight liquidity. Not every twitch deserves a prophecy.",
        "uncertainty": "Price movement is not proof of the underlying outcome.",
        "link": "https://polymarket.com/event/example-event-d",
        "provenance_ids": [
          "prov-pm-d"
        ]
      },
      {
        "market_id": "kalshi-event-a",
        "question": "Will Event A occur before January 1, 2027?",
        "venue": "kalshi",
        "probability": 0.56,
        "delta_24h": 0.01,
        "volume_24h": 94320,
        "spread_bps": 80,
        "depth_usd": 18000,
        "liquidity_summary": "usable",
        "tape_read": "The line drifted higher with usable liquidity. Not every twitch deserves a prophecy.",
        "uncertainty": "Price movement is not proof of the underlying outcome.",
        "link": "https://kalshi.com/markets/example-event-a",
        "provenance_ids": [
          "prov-k-a"
        ]
      },
      {
        "market_id": "op-event-c",
        "question": "Will Indicator C exceed the supplied threshold in Q4?",
        "venue": "opinion",
        "probability": 0.47,
        "delta_24h": 0.07,
        "volume_24h": 41000,
        "spread_bps": 190,
        "depth_usd": 4200,
        "liquidity_summary": "limited",
        "tape_read": "The line drifted higher with limited liquidity. Not every twitch deserves a prophecy.",
        "uncertainty": "Price movement is not proof of the underlying outcome.",
        "link": "https://app.opinion.trade/detail?topicId=example",
        "provenance_ids": [
          "prov-op-c"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "gap": {
      "event_id": "event-a",
      "label": "SEMANTIC",
      "headline": "Polymarket 62.0% vs Kalshi 56.0%",
      "comparison": [
        {
          "market_id": "pm-event-a",
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "probability": 0.62,
          "observed_at": "2026-08-04T10:55:00-05:00",
          "depth_usd": 12000,
          "spread_bps": 45
        },
        {
          "market_id": "kalshi-event-a",
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "probability": 0.56,
          "observed_at": "2026-08-04T10:54:00-05:00",
          "depth_usd": 18000,
          "spread_bps": 80
        }
      ],
      "why": "The prices differ, but the label is controlled by contract matching and execution evidence, not by enthusiasm.",
      "limitations": [
        "The supplied resolution-source wording differs.",
        "The cancellation clauses are not identical.",
        "Fee-adjusted edge was not supplied.",
        "No simultaneous execution evidence was supplied."
      ],
      "provenance_ids": [
        "prov-gap-a"
      ]
    },
    "social_pulse": {
      "summary": "X focused on Event A contract wording, Candidate B rumor cycle, Team D late lineup discussion. Reddit ingestion is disabled pending approved commercial access.",
      "x": {
        "status": "available",
        "themes": [
          "Event A contract wording",
          "Candidate B rumor cycle",
          "Team D late lineup discussion"
        ],
        "representative_links": [
          "https://x.com/example/status/1000000000000000001",
          "https://x.com/example/status/1000000000000000002"
        ]
      },
      "reddit": {
        "status": "disabled",
        "themes": [],
        "representative_links": []
      },
      "warning": "Social attention is not factual verification."
    },
    "what_changed": [
      {
        "headline": "Official schedule for Event A was updated",
        "summary": "The official source changed the event schedule; the exact contract effect remains under review.",
        "url": "https://example.gov/event-a-update",
        "source": "Official source",
        "confidence": "high",
        "provenance_ids": [
          "prov-news-a"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "historical_cat_fact": {
      "headline": "Large moves in thin books reversed more often in this synthetic sample",
      "finding": "Among the supplied synthetic analogue set, large moves with shallow depth were less persistent after six hours.",
      "sample_size": 42,
      "date_range": "synthetic 2025-01-01 to 2026-07-31",
      "selection_rule": "absolute six-hour move >= 10 points and depth below $1,000",
      "limitation": "Synthetic demonstration; not a real backtest.",
      "provenance_ids": [
        "prov-history-1"
      ]
    },
    "receipts": [
      {
        "claim": "Yesterday’s Event Z move looked execution-limited.",
        "grade": "correct",
        "note": "The displayed gap disappeared after realistic size and fees.",
        "provenance_ids": [
          "prov-receipt-z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "gamblercat_take": "Today’s useful signal is the combination of price, liquidity, and source quality. Social attention tells us where humans are staring. It does not tell us they are right. The largest venue gap still needs its contract rules read before anybody celebrates.",
    "disclosure": "GamblerCat provides market data and commentary for informational and entertainment purposes. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Verify the original contract and your local eligibility."
  },
  "derivatives": {
    "newsletter": {
      "subject": "GamblerCat Daily: 5 markets made the board",
      "preview": "Will Event A occur by December 31, 2026?"
    },
    "x_thread": [],
    "short_video": {
      "hook": "Will Event A occur by December 31, 2026? moved today.",
      "voiceover": "Today’s useful signal is the combination of price, liquidity, and source quality. Social attention tells us where humans are staring. It does not tell us they are right. The largest venue gap still needs its contract rules read before anybody celebrates.",
      "on_screen_text": [
        "THE BOARD",
        "THE GAP",
        "SOCIAL ≠ TRUTH"
      ]
    },
    "community_summary": "Today’s useful signal is the combination of price, liquidity, and source quality. Social attention tells us where humans are staring. It does not tell us they are right. The largest venue gap still needs its contract rules read before anybody celebrates.",
    "social_cards": [
      {
        "title": "Will Event A occur by December 31, 2026?",
        "stat": "62.0%",
        "link": "https://polymarket.com/event/example-event-a"
      },
      {
        "title": "Will Candidate B win the August contest?",
        "stat": "31.0%",
        "link": "https://polymarket.com/event/example-event-b"
      },
      {
        "title": "Will Team D win its next match?",
        "stat": "71.0%",
        "link": "https://polymarket.com/event/example-event-d"
      }
    ]
  },
  "qa": {
    "passed": true,
    "banned_phrases": [],
    "number_provenance_violations": [],
    "unsupported_claims": [],
    "notes": [
      "Deterministic reference output."
    ]
  }
}